Deterrence, Compellence, and Coercion

Understanding Coercion, Deterrence, and Compellence

Coercion is threatening to harm an enemy or pledging to benefit the enemy if the enemy complies with the demands of an assailant. Deterrence is a tripwire to avoid war and compellence is threatening to start one if victims do not subdue. 

 Outline: 

1. Coercion 
2. Deterrence and Compellence 
3. Analysis 

Coercion: 

Coercion is to do our bidding without destroying the enemy. Coercion is the threat of the use of force to overcome an enemy. The ultimate motive is to achieve goals under conflict without going to war. Force can simply use to hurt, if we uncover the point where it would hurt most, a threat to do so can motivate our opponent to avoid it. We shall call this coercive use of force. The use of coercion is to Open up room for bargaining.

Nuclear weapons states use the threat of use of nuclear weapons to quash an enemy. 

Strategic coercion:

Strategic coercion is what analysts call when larger armies are involved in conflicting parties. 

Examples from History: 

Mongols used brute force to terrorize the opponents. Usually massacred the whole city to show what they do to those who do not surrender. Sometimes, they left the city without damage as people surrender.

Coercion vs. Undue Influence

Roman people did the same. They slaughtered the whole city population along with animals. 

Two Methods of Coercion: 

1. A threat is a pledge to impose costs if the opponent acts contrary to one’s wishes. 
2. A promise is a pledge to provide benefits to the opponent if he acts by one’s wishes.                                                                                                                                                 Both threats and promises are intended to influence the expectations of the opponent and cause him to change his behavior. Both threats and promises are costly to the one making them although threats are costly if the player fails to influence the opponent, and promises are costly if the player succeeds

Coercion and Compellence

Brute Force:

Coercion mostly do the trick, however, often it is necessary to use brute force to make the threat of further violence more credible. The threat is necessary and had to perform if the enemy does not comply.

High school bully uses brute force to take away lunch money. Force is used indeed. 

Salami Tactics is taking small steps that do not deter response from the enemy. 

Deterrence and Compellence: 

 Schelling defined compellence as “a threat intended to make an adversary do something,”

While deterrence is defined as "one sets up the tripwire and then leaves things up to the opponent without any time limit".

Deterrence 1        Conservative and passive 2        Protects status quo 3        Persuade the enemy not to initiate its action 4        We make the demand, explain the consequences, and wait for action 5        If opponent crosses the line, we take punitive action 6        It is difficult to judge whether it was a success or not. 7        Best achieved by threat (sanctions, embargoes) 8        Can be passive and static. Sets up the tripwire and then leave it up to the enemy to cross it.  9        Punishment if the status quo disturbed

Compellence            Compellence is active          Seeks to change the status quo                                Persuade the enemy to change its behavior           We make a demand of action and then initiate our own, continue doing so until opponent ceases          To persuade the opponent to change its behavior or government,            Success is easy to see in form of change of government, or halt of ongoing behavior.            Best achieved by promise (to invest in the country, economic aid, military aid, USAID, infrastructure development)            Compellence must have a deadline.            Progressively worse if not compliant, reward if comply          Like offensive strategy, it takes the initiative and engages the opponent until the later relents.

 

 

Deterrence and Deniability

 Analysis: 

The difference is in timing, initiative, and monitoring. A deterrent can be passive and static. One sets up the tripwire and then leaves things up to the opponent without any time limit. As we shall see, stationing American troops in Europe provided a trip-wire (or plate glass) that performed these functions. If the Soviets ever decided to attack, they have to do it in a strength that would be sufficient to overcome these forces.

Example: 

Throughout the Cold War, the U.S. constantly worried about the possibility of the USSR attacking Western Europe. The problem was that in conventional armaments, the Red Army was much, much stronger than what NATO could muster against it. A general war over Western Europe almost invariably meant that the U.S. would have to resort to nuclear weapons. The Americans could say “If you ever attack Western Europe, we shall fight back with all we’ve got, including nukes.” Then they could sit back, wait, and watch. Only if the Soviets ever invaded would the Americans have to do anything.

 

 Salami-Slice Tactics and Deterrent: 

The deterrent can be eroded by salami tactics, a strategy that takes steps that are small enough not to activate the threatened action, yet that brings the player closer to his goal.

Choose with Objective: 

Generally, if deterrence is the goal, you would do best by choosing a status quo such that if your opponent acts contrary to your wishes, what you do is punishment. This usually involves making the status quo sufficiently pleasant and threatening to make it much worse if he disrupts it. You can also promise to make it progressively better as long as he persists in compliance. If compellence is the goal, you would do best by choosing a status quo such that what you do if the opponent complies with your demand becomes a reward. This usually requires that you make the status quo sufficiently unpleasant and promise to improve it if he complies. You can also threaten to make the status quo progressively worse if he persists in non-compliance. 

Understanding Fifth-Generation Warfare

 Fifth-generation warfare brings the pre-state era back into the spotlight by involving civilizations and cultures. 

Age of war is usually associated with maneuvers and an increase in damage. From the 1st to the 4th generation, weapons of mass destruction used in wars were increased in their lethality and damage level. Contrarily, 5th generation warfare is different from the previous generation. It brings more control and uses sophisticated means of defeating the enemy. Furthermore, wars of civilizations and cultures, being the fifth-generational warfare, are disuniting humanity as it breeds hatred. Everywhere around the globe, nations are at daggers drawn with each other. As Clausewitz said: 

Every age has its own kind of war, its own  limiting conditions, and its own peculiar preconceptions.  

So, 5th generation warfare is what humanity faces today. Islamophobia, forcibly imposed foreign values, radical Islamization, Hindutva, airing anti-Sino sentiments and ultra-nationalism are some examples of this war. These fault-lines of modern times are threatening humanity. These wars are fought on cultural and civilizational levels.           

 Strangely, human throughout the existing recorded history has desired for peace, but war is the more discussed topic in history. From Sun Tsu, Thucydides, Thomas Hobbes to Machiavelli, and Clauswitz, history is flooded with information to wage war. Sun Tsu once state: 

Sun Tsu Quote from Art of War (544-496BC)

  Similarly, fifth-generation warfare is the manifestation of this quote as well.                            

What is 5th generation Warfare? 

Fifth-generation warfare as introduced by Reed and Keleshall is distinguished from previous generations by a new conceptualization of the role of the state in warfare. It is a war for cultural dominance and value-based legitimacy. War of cultures and civilizations for the prevalence of one's culture over all others is fifth-generational warfare. Ultranationalism and cultural dominance are prime factors of this war. One thing that needs to be clarified that pride in one's culture and traditions are absolutely different from nationalism. Prior is a legitimate right while the former is extravagant and harmful for the global atmosphere.   Fifth-generational warfare brings national, cultural, and religious identities into its domain. 

Fifth-generational warfare is different from hybrid warfare. 

5th generation warfare is different from hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare employs all means and methods at its disposal to engage the enemy at multiple levels. Hybrid warfare strategizes on many smaller enemies rather than one of two big enemies. By this, hybrid warfare increases the cognitive load on the enemy intending to break its will to fight back. Smaller enemies could be militant organizations, mercenaries, economic threats by economic sanctions, and many others.

                     

                                                        Paradigms of  Hybrid Warfare 

If want to read more about hybrid warfare. Click Here  

Asymmetric warfare, in which non-state actors wage a war against the state or state institutions using guerilla warfare tactics, could be a part of the hybrid strategy. It transforms from conventional warfare to irregular warfare.  

                 

                                            Traditional Vs Irregular Warfare 

Hybrid warfare like its name depicts uses multiple means to sabotage an enemy. It is a blend of different methods to compliant the enemy. 

 Many people confuse hybrid warfare with fifth-generation warfare which creates confusion.

5th Generation Warfare Different from Ideological Warfare: 

5th generation warfare is also quite different from the ideological rivalry of the cold war period. In the cold war, communist and capitalism were looking eyeball to eyeball. But it ended with the fall of the Berlin wall.  The clash of civilizations thesis emerged after the cold war era. Samuel Huntington and Bernard Lewis produced tremendously well explanative work on this subject. Clash of Civilizations is worthy to mention in this respect as it presents the basis of the emergence of cultural and civilizational war.  

Narrative and counter-narrative are basic tools used in 5h generation warfare. In international relations, the theory of Post-modernism is the most relevant theory to 5th generation warfare. 

Present System is Conducive for Fifth-Generation Warfare:

Nuclear weapons disparage the total warfare option. But the conflict of opinion is constant and to achieve objectives, states create a threshold to revoke nuclear outbreaks. Strikingly clear that nuclear option is not favorable for anyone on the planet, there will be no winners only losers if nuclear war broke out. Knowing this reality, think tanks, defense analysts, and statesmen devise other means to accomplish objectives. 

The threat of using maximum force to pressurize a country.  

Other Means 

If the threat of war is not working, then countries resort to the second option. The means which can compel other states is by the use of modern tools of fifth-generation warfare.  

weapons for Fifth-generation warfare 

Fifth-generation warfare has its own tools for offensive, defensive and pre-emptive strategies. 

1. Ultra-nationalism 
2. Extremism 
3. Xenophobia 
4. Disinformation 
5. Narrative
6. Counter -narrative             

These are some aspects of fifth-generational warfare. Ultra-nationalism is one of the most used tactical weapons for fifth-generational warfare. It airs the sentiments of the hierarchical division of supremacy of different races within society and around the globe. The principal reason for it is to wage war and gaining internal support. History is evident to this fact that ultranationalism is a one-step taken toward destruction. America first, European way, Hindutva, and many such slogans fall under this umbrella. 

  Xenophobia could be an offshoot of nationalism by which hatred for foreign elements is a natural reaction. 

  Disinformation involves fake information about national heroes and historical characters. It may be directed to maligning the heroes of the targeted nation. By this enemy creates confusion and division among segments of societies, It divides the nation intending to rule over them. 

The narrative building is one of the most employed weapons for 5th generation warfare. The narrative building is the manipulation of factual data to create disinformation. This disinformation could be used to weaken the enemy internally or it could be a cause of misdirecting the enemy to achieve its targets. The purpose of disinformation could be to direct the international community in a way that will pose threat to the prosperity and sovereignty of an independent nation. Disinformation can be damaging in many other ways as well. 

         5th generation warfare uses disinformation to intensify aggressiveness in the general public. By this, it compels enemy countries to initiate war. Starting a war against a recognized state is a big problem for established states, as it can bring international sanctions on countries. Fifth-generational warfare has devised new means to destroy an enemy country and that is by maligning its reputation. 

Disinformation is the most potent tool employed against enemies in fifth-generation warfare. 

ways to counter 5th generation warfare 

Countering fifth-generational warfare is quite different from border management and security. The scope of fifth-generation warfare is alarmingly different from previous concepts of countering security threats. It starts defining the threat and its scope by debunking misinformation and bringing more clarity to government actions. As it targets the general masses and state institutions, there is a dire need to create a well elaborative communication channel to mitigate disinformation at all costs. Important considerations to counter fifth-generational warfare are as follows. 

• In this age of disinformation, having the right information and communicating the right information with more transparency is very important. Information from credible sources only must be passed. Debunking misinformation must be carried out. 
• Analyzing information has become essential in this flooded information era. 
• Coexistence and tolerance must be promoted to keep the peace. 
• Multiculture and inter-civilization contacts must be promoted. 

Conclusion

             Summing up all discussion, 5th generation warfare is in its essence demands more sagacious decision-making. Keeping the peace is beneficial for all. But it should not be through war. Peace must come through tolerance, pluralism, and coexistence. Effective means must be used to overcome the challenges of 5th generation warfare. Combating warfare should be only through peace. As Martin Luther King once said: 

Darkness cannot drive out darkness, only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate, only love can do that.